中国农业生态效率的时空特征及驱动因素

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Agricultural Ecological Efficiency in China

运用1997-2016年省际面板数据和SBM-Undesirable模型分析中国农业生态效率及其时空特征,并在此基础上运用灰色关联分析法探讨中国农业生态效率时空演变的主要驱动因素。结果显示:中国农业生态效率总体呈波动上升态势且呈现出明显的区域差异,农业生态效率主要受农地确权、财政支农水平、农业生产能力、农业机械密度、农业规模化水平、农业受灾率、工业化水平、城市化水平等8类因素影响。农业生态效率的主要驱动因素为农业自身发展,并由以强调农业高产出为主逐渐转向以改善农业生产条件为主。东部地区农业生态效率的主要驱动因素为农业自身发展,中部地区由以政策支持为主转向农业自身发展为主,西部地区由以政策支持为主转向宏观环境为主。

Based on the provincial panel data of 1997-2016, this paper uses SBM-Undesirable model to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural ecological efficiency in China, then on such basis, it employs the grey relational analysis method to explore the main driving factors of spatial and temporal evolution of agricultural ecological efficiency in China. The results show that China' s agricultural ecological efficiency is generally presenting a fluctuating and rising tendency and shows obvious regional differences. The agricultural ecological efficiency is mainly influenced by eight factors: the confirmation of farmland rights, the level of financial support for agriculture, the agricultural production capacity, the density of agricultural machinery, the level of agricultural scale, the rate of agricultural disasters, the level of industrialization, and the level of urbanization. The development of agriculture itself is the main driving factor of agricultural ecological efficiency, and the emphasis is changing from mainly on high agricultural productivity to mainly on improvement of agricultural production conditions. The major driving factor of agricultural ecological efficiency in the eastern region is the agriculture development of itself in the central region the focus of policy support is turned into itself agriculture development, and in the western region, the focus is turned from policy support into the macro environment.