不确定性如何影响我国农村居民消费——基于持久收入假说下的动态面板实证研究

How Does Uncertainty Affect the Consumption of Rural Residents in China:A Dynamic Panel Empirical Study Based on the Permanent Income Hypothesis

贸易保护主义抬头背景下,研究如何实现我国农村居民消费升级是实现经济高质量发展、满足人民对美好生活需求的良策。鉴于此,文章在弗里德曼持久收入假说的基础上引入不确定性因素使研究更具前沿性。同时,通过采用国家统计局提供的相关数据寻找最优拟合我国2000-201 7年31个省份农村居民消费和收入关系的面板模型,创新性地采用ARIMA模型确定滞后期,进而确定了持久收入和消费惯性。研究发现并确认了:包含滞后一期消费且无持久收入的单向个体固定效应动态面板模型对拟合我国农村居民消费现状具有合理性,将不确定性收入项加入上述模型也比较合理。

In the context of the rising of trade protectionism, to study how to realize the upgrading of rural residents’ consumption in China is a good strategy to achieve high-quality economic development and meet people’s needs for a better life. In view of this, this paper introduces the uncertainty factors based on Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis so as to make the study more cutting-edge. At the same time, by making use of the relevant data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, it finds out the panel model that best fits the consumption and income relationship of rural residents in China’ s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government from 2000 to 2017, and innovatively adopts the ARIMA model to determine the lag period, so as to determine the permanent income and consumption inertia. This study finds and confirms that the one-way individual fixed-effect dynamic panel model including the one-phase lagging consumption without permanent income is reasonable for fitting the current consumption situation of the rural residents in China, it is relatively reasonable to add the uncertainty income item to the above model.