欧洲议会选举视阈下的欧盟碎片化及其影响

EU Fragmentation and Its Impacts

2019年5月23~26日,欧洲议会选举在28个欧盟成员国中进行。选举后欧盟碎片化趋势加剧,具体表现为人民党和社民盟两大党团对欧洲议会和欧理会控制力减弱、东南欧与西北欧地域分化明显、主要党团内核心区议席下降导致内部分裂。欧盟碎片化的原因与主流政党意识形态趋同并衰落、成员国内部碎片化加剧,以及欧洲议会选举本身的次等选举、抗议性选举特征等问题有关。欧盟碎片化将对欧盟出台激进的气候政策带来挑战,同时也将加大下一轮欧盟预算谈判难度,推迟欧盟对外签署自由贸易协定和吸纳新成员的步伐,并可能加剧欧元区的金融风险。此外,此次欧洲议会选举也将对中欧关系带来一定影响。

The European Parliamentary election in May, 2019 resulted in further fragmentation in the European Union. The European People's Party ( EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) lost their control of the European Parliament as they lost the majority of seats. Ideological differences between Southern and Eastern Europe versus Northern and Western Europe appear to have widened and the EPP and S&D' s votes declined in Western and Northern Europe, which is the traditional "core" of EU. Increasing fragmentation is the result of the ideological decline of the center-left and center-right parties and reflected the increasing fragmentation within EU member states. EU fragmentation will make it more difficult for EU to raise its climate ambition as well as negotiate its next multi-year budget, slow down EU's membership expansion, make it more complicated for EU to sign further free trade agreement, and will also have implications for Sino-EU relations.