基于数学模型的芜湖市房地产业景气指数研究

A Study on Tenement and Real Estate Indexes of Wuhu Market Mased on Mathematical Model

以芜湖市房地产行业作为研究对象,从住房需求供给和房地产价格两个维度来对景气指数进行研究,分别建立了基于对数回归的住房需求供给模型和基于灰色理论的房价模型,并进行了实证分析。结论认为:商品房销售价格和城镇居民的人均可支配收入为影响商品房需求的主要因素,需求量对于前后者的偏弹性系数分别为-0.263和1.594;商品房销售价格、城镇人口与总人口的比和房地产开发投资额是决定商品房供给的主要影响因素,供给量对于三者的偏弹性系数分别为-0.247、2.050和0.590。GDP、投资金额和人均可支配收入对房价具有显著影响;灰色系统模型对房价走势的预测相对准确。

This paper takes the Wuhu real estate industry as the research object,and analyzes it from a quantitative perspective to establish a series of mathematical models of the prosperity index,including the demand-supply model of housing based on logarithmic regression,the house price model based on Grey theory and the situation analysis model of real estate industry based on spectrum analysis method.According to the statistical yearbook of Wuhu,we use the economic data to make an empirical analysis of the above models.The conclusions are as follows:(1)the sales price of commercial housing and the per capita disposable income of urban residents are the main factors affecting the demand of commercial housing.The partial elasticity coefficient of demand for the former and the latter are-0.263 and 1.594 respectively;the sale price of commercial housing,the ratio of urban population to total population,and the investment amount of real estate development are the main factors affecting the supply of commercial housing.The partial elastic coefficients of supply to the three are separately 0.247,2.050 and 0.590.(2)GDP,investment amount and disposable income have a significant impact on housing prices;the gray system model predicts the trend of housing prices relatively accurately.