山岭公路隧道施工安全动态风险评估方法研究

Research on Dynamic Risk Evaluation Method of Mountain Highway Tunnel Construction Safety

将新奥法监控量测手段与以往静态风险评估方法相结合,基于监控量测项目确定山岭公路隧道施工安全动态风险评估指标体系。先采用层次分析法确定各风险评估指标的初始权重,借助监控量测对各评估指标进行数据采集、分析、处理,确定出各评估指标的施工状态值。然后,建立动态风险估计模型,根据评估指标的施工状态分别对其风险概率和风险损失隶属度进行估计,确定出各评估指标的风险概率及风险损失隶属度模糊集。最后,采用模糊综合评价法确定出各评估指标的动态风险等级,该动态风险评估方法对减少山岭公路隧道施工安全风险具有重要意义。

Combining the NATM monitoring measurement method with the former static risk evaluation method,the dynamic risk evaluation index system of mountain highway tunnel construction safety is determined based on the monitoring measurement project.Firstly,the initial weight of each risk evaluation index is determined by analytic hierarchy process.With the help of monitoring measurement,the data of each evaluation index is collected,analyzed and processed,and the construction status value of each evaluation index is determined.Then,the dynamic risk estimation model is established,and the risk probability and the risk loss membership degree are estimated respectively according to the construction status of the evaluation index,and the fuzzy sets of risk probability and risk loss membership degree of each evaluation index are determined.Finally,the dynamic risk grade of each evaluation index is determined by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The dynamic risk evaluation method is of great significance to reduce the construction safety risk of mountain highway tunnel.