核电厂变形监测数据处理及分析预报应用研究

Research on Data Processing and Analysis and Forecast Application of Deformation Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants

变形监测主要是提取监测体形变量并对其进行物理解释和变形趋势预测分析,即变形监测不仅要客观地反映监测物体当前的变形信息,且要对变形体未来发展趋势做出准确的预报。核电厂的相关设施对安全性要求极高,而站内建(构)筑物变形监测是保证其安全生产的重要途径。对于核电厂变形监测工作,目前国内科研人员在变形值提取方面技术理论体系已经十分成熟,然而在变形数据的分析预报方面相关研究较少。研究以秦山核电项目为实例,系统地介绍了核电厂变形监测方案,重点将灰色时序组合模型用于变形监测数据分析预报中,并与单一的灰色模型和时间序列模型的预报精度作对比。结果表明:组合模型在核电厂变形数据分析预报中具有较高的应用精度,对核电厂变形监测工作具有一定的指导意义。

Deformation monitoring mainly extracts and monitors the variables of the object and performs physical interpretation and deformation trend forecast analysis. That is, deformation monitoring not only objectively reflects the current deformation information of the monitoring object, but also predicts the future development trend of the deformation object accurately. The relevant facilities of nuclear power plants have extremely high safety requirements, and the deformation monitoring of internal buildings (structures) is an important way to ensure safe production. For deformation monitoring in nuclear power plant, the technical and theoretical system of current domestic researchers on deformation extraction has been very mature, but there are few researches on the analysis and forecast of deformation data. Taking Qinshan Nuclear Power Project as an example, this paper systematically introduces the deformation monitoring program of nuclear power plant, focusing on the gray-time series combination model for analysis and forecast of deformation monitoring data, and comparing it with the forecast accuracy of a single gray model and time series model. The results indicate that the combined model shows high application accuracy in the analysis and forecast of deformation data of nuclear power plants, and has certain guiding significance for the deformation monitoring of nuclear power plants.