中国预算变迁遵循间断-均衡逻辑吗?——基于2007—2019年中国财政预算数据的实证研究

Does China’s Budget Change Follow Punctuated-Equilibrium logics?——Evidence from China’s Budget Data of 2007-2019

间断-均衡预算理论对渐进预算理论进行了挑战,它认为预算过程中同时存在长期稳定与剧烈变迁,并将之归结为认知摩擦和制度摩擦。为了检验中国预算变迁是否遵循间断-均衡逻辑,论文发展了基于间断-均衡理论视角下的中国政策过程和预算过程理论,应用2007—2019年全国、中央、地方的预算数据,以类级支出为分析对象,通过计算类级支出变迁的分布值,对一般间断假设、纵向制度摩擦假设和比较制度摩擦假设三个命题进行了检验。研究发现,中国预算变迁符合间断-均衡逻辑,这扩展了一般间断假设的外部有效性。为了理解这些结论及其背后的现象,论文对间断-均衡理论中的公共预算的一般经验法则、制度摩擦与间断-均衡理论的比较研究、中国地区分权的权威体制、规则制定的权力和行动的权力、发展基于中国情景的政府信息处理理论等几个问题进行了讨论。

Punctuated-equilibrium budget theory( PEBT) challenged incremental budget theory’s view that long stability was intersected by violent change. For that reason,PEBT focuses on cognition friction and institutional friction. To explore whether China’s budgeting changes follow the punctuated equilibrium logic,we developed an integrated framework for understanding authoritarian policy and budget processes in China based on PEBT. We then tested three hypotheses,using data for the period 2007-2019, regarding the punctuations in the China’s Budget, including the General Punctuation Hypothesis, the Vertical Institutional Friction Hypothesis, and the Comparative Institutional Friction Hypothesis. Our research found China’s budgeting changes abided by the logic of punctuated equilibrium,which extended the external validity of the General Punctuation Hypothesis. In order to understand the conclusions and its deep implications, we discussed the following five topics, namely a general empirical law of public budgeting, institutional friction and comparative research of budgeting,China’s regionally decentralized authoritarian system,the power of rule-making and action,and the development of a government information processing theory based on the Chinese context.