理论验证与适用场域:多源流框架的理论分析——基于14个案例的检验分析

Theoretical Verification and Applicable Fields: Theoretical Analysis of Multi-Source Flow Framework——Based on Test Analysis of 14 Cases

多源流框架作为西方政策议程设置分析的一项工具,被应用到多个领域的政策分析中。然而学界对多源流框架的理论适用性并未进行深入分析和有效验证。论文采用量化检验和案例深描相结合的方法,选取14个典型案例,应用多源流框架对其进行理论验证。量化检验发现多源流框架在应用过程中存在多重困境:独立性困境、权重划分困境和框架变异困境。案例深描发现多重困境存在的深层机理:政策共同体包容度过大导致的政策企业家多重身份“粘合剂”;焦点事件显著性过高导致的政策制定者注意力分配不均;执政党意识形态的政党统合促成政策过程走向规律性。研究发现,本土应用中政策之窗的开启具有独特性,制度情境对政策理论应用具有极其重要的嵌套影响。

The multiple streams framework is used as a tool for the analysis of Western policy agenda setting and is applied to policy analysis in multiple areas. However, the academic applicability of the multiple streams framework has not been thoroughly analyzed and validated. This study used a combination of quantitative tests and case descriptions to select 14 typical cases and then applied the multiple streams framework to theoretically verify it. Quantitative testing found that the multiple streams framework had multiple dilemmas in the application process: independence dilemma, weight division dilemma, and appearance order dilemma. Thisstudy reveals the deep mechanisms of multiple dilemmas: the multi-identity “adhesive” of policy entrepreneurs caused by excessive policy inclusiveness;the uneven distribution of attention of policy makers caused by the high focus on events;and, the integration of political parties in a form leads to the regularization of the policy process. This study found that the opening of a local policy window has unique characteristics and institutional context andhas important nesting effects on policy theory applications.