基于动态博弈的城市出租车投放量测算研究

Urban Taxi Quantity Based on Dynamic Game Theory

出租车是城市客运交通体系中的重要组成部分,但随着出租车市场的发展和乘客出行需求的变化,出租车行业积累了大量问题,其根本原因还是出租车市场中各利益主体之间利益矛盾难以协调,供需关系不平衡,需要通过调整出租车投放规模来促进各利益主体的和谐发展.因此,从博弈的视角出发,分析出租车行业中的主要利益关系,构建博弈均衡,并进行博弈均衡解析,结合出租车市场的发展规律和博弈均衡条件,测算出投放规模的合理数量范围.通过对西安市出租车市场的实证测算,当短期内增加的出租车数量不超过1908辆时,各利益主体间利益矛盾最小;从长期来看,当增加的出租车数量为1223辆时,能够达成长期的博弈均衡.

Taxi is one of the most important transportation modes in the urban passenger transport system. However, with the development of taxi market and the change of passenger's travel demand, taxi market has accumulated many problems, the fundamental reason is that the interests among various stakeholders in the taxi market is difficult to coordinate, which leads to the unbalanced supply-demand relationship in the taxi market, and need to promote the harmonious development of various stakeholders by adjusting the urban taxi quantity. Therefore, using the perspective of game theory, analyses the main stakeholders and the relationships in the taxi industry, constructs the game equilibrium and carries out the solution, calculates the reasonable quantity range of the urban taxi. And through the empirical calculation of the taxi market in Xi'an, China, and when the number of taxis increased in the short term does not exceed 1 908, the contradiction of interests among the stakeholders is the smallest;in the long term, when the number of taxis increased to 1 223, the long-term game equilibrium can be reached.