京津冀交通部门CO2排放的时空差异及影响因素

Spatial-temporal Differeces of CO2 Emissions of Transport Sector in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

研究京津冀地区交通部门CO2排放的时空特性和影响因素,对推动京津冀交通部门绿色发展以及实现协同减排具有重要的理论和实践意义。针对2000~2015年京津冀CO2排放的时空特进行了分析,运用LMDI分解方法对京津冀CO2排放时间变化因素进行总体分析,然后利用B-R空间分解方法对京津冀CO2排放空间差异进行分析。研究发现:(1)在研究期内,京津冀交通部门CO2排放增长较快,从1360万吨增长到4660万吨,其中,北京对经京津冀CO2排放贡献最大,达到42.56%;河北省和天津贡献较小,分别为31.20%和26.24%.(2)收入效应的增加是导致京津冀交通部门CO2排放增长的主要原因,累计贡献度为107.15%.能源强度和运输强度效应是抑制京津冀CO2排放的主要因素。累计贡献度为分别为-42.62%和-21.95%.(3)京津冀各地区CO2排放差异不断扩大,主要原因是收入效应、能源结构、能源利用效率和交通强度差距不断增加。人均收入和交通强度高是北京高于京津冀平均水平的主要原因,交通结构是天津市和河北省的CO2排放低于京津冀的平均水平的主要原因。

Exploring the temporal and spatial pattern evolution and driving factors of the transport sector for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has important theoretical and practical significance in promoting green development in transport sector and achieving collaborative reduction. This study analyzes CO2 emissions of transport sector for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2000-2015 from temporal and spatial perspectives. Exploring the driving forces of the changes of CO2 emissions of transport sector using the LMDI method, and identifies the influencing factors of the differences of CO2 emissions among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei using B-R method. Temporal decomposition results show that energy intensity effect(contribution degree:-42.62%) and transportation intensity effect(21.95%) are the dominant factors restraining the increase in CO2 emissions of transport sector, while income effect(contribution degree:107.15%) is the main contributor to the increase of CO2 emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transport sector. Spatial decomposition results demonstrate that the differences in CO2 emissions of transport sector among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are expanding increasingly. Income effect, energy intensity effect, energy structure and transportation intensity are main driving forces responsible for the difference in CO2 emissions among regions.