基于企业减排的森林碳汇需求决策机理与政策仿真

Forest Carbon Sequestration Demand Formation Mechanism and Differentiated Policies Based on Enterprise Carbon Emission Reduction

本文基于企业对不同减排路径的选择,采用一个不确定条件下的积分算法,构建了企业对森林碳汇的需求决策模型,并以我国当前正在进行碳交易试点的7个省市中北京、上海、湖北、广东4个省市为案例区,选择火电、化工、钢铁3个碳排放密集型代表行业,按照各样本省市这3个行业目前参与自愿减排的数量比例,共计选取89家自愿接受碳减排的企业为案例,每个案例企业再具体调查31个具有独立投入-产出核算的能耗单位,总计2759个减排单位样本。通过计算样本减排单位自行技术减排成本,拟购买的森林碳汇项目供给成本,案例区减排配额的价格,进而考虑政府减排技术补贴与购买森林碳汇补贴两种不同补贴政策组合所构成的三种政策实施情景,模拟分析了样本减排单位在不同政策实施情景下对森林碳汇需求的决策过程。模拟结果表明:在当前无补贴政策的初始状态下,只有181个样本减排单位将选择购买森林碳汇减排,占比7%.如果政府单纯实施技术减排补贴政策,则当补贴提升至168元时,购买森林碳汇减排的减排单位数量将上升为332个,占比12%;反之,如果政府单纯实施碳汇减排补贴政策,则当补贴提升至168元时,购买森林碳汇减排的减排单位数量将上升为910个,占比33%;如果政府同时实施技术减排补贴和碳汇减排补贴政策,两种补贴都提升至168元时,购买森林碳汇减排的减排单位数量将上升为1683个,占比61%.本文所提出的基于企业减排路径选择的森林碳汇需求决策模型为研究企业对森林碳汇需求的形成机理和评价政府不同的碳减排政策效应提供了一条新思路,为未来我国增汇减排战略的制订与实施提供了可资借鉴的方法。

Based on the selection of enterprise carbon emission reduction paths, this paper adopts an integration algorithm under uncertain conditions to construct a demand decision model for forest carbon sequestration in China, and uses the seven provinces and cities in China that are currently conducting carbon trading pilots in Beijing, Shanghai, Hubei, and Guangdong, from which four provinces and cities were selected as the case areas. Three carbon-intensive representative industries are selected: thermal power,chemistry,and steel. According to the proportion of voluntary emission reductions currently involved in the three industries in each sample province, a total of 89 companies are selected. Each case company then specifically investigated 31 energy consumption units with independent input-output accounting, and a total of 2,759 emission reduction unit samples. By calculating the self-technology emission reduction costs for the sample emission reduction units, the supply cost of the forest carbon sink projects to be purchased, and the price of the emission reduction quotas for the case areas,the two subsidy policy combinations of the government’s emission reduction technology subsidies and the purchase of forest carbon sequestration subsidies are considered. Three kinds of policy implementation scenarios are constructed to simulate and analyze the decision-making process of forest carbon sequestration demand under different policy implementation scenarios. The simulation results show that in the initial state of no subsidy policy, only 181 sample emission reduction units will choose to purchase forest carbon sequestration, accounting for 7%. If the government simply implements the technology reduction subsidy policy, when the subsidy is raised to 168 yuan, the number of emission reduction units that purchase forest carbon sequestration will increase to 332, accounting for 12%;otherwise, if the government simply implements carbon reduction for the subsidy policy, when the subsidy is increased to 168 yuan, the number of emission reduction units that purchase forest carbon sequestration will increase to 910, accounting for 33% of the total;if the government implements both the technical reduction subsidies and carbon sequestration reduction subsidies when both subsidies are raised to 168 yuan, the number of emission reduction units that purchase forest carbon sequestration will increase to 1683, accounting for 61%. The forest carbon sequestration demand decision-making model based on the selection of corporate emission reduction paths proposed in this paper provides a new idea for studying the formation mechanism of forest carbon sequestration demand and evaluating the different carbon emission reduction policy effects of the government. The formulation and implementation of the platoon strategy provide useful methods.