基于引力模型的旅游客源市场时空收敛分析——以南京市为例

Time-Space Convergence Analysis of Tourist Market Based on Gravity Model:A Case Study of Nanjing

基于旅游引力模型的逆向推导及超制图学理论,通过南京客源城市游客量与百度指数,计算66个大中城市至南京的可达距离与吸引距离,通过原地图的变形形象地展现并分析客源市场的时空收敛及特征。结果表明,交通与通讯技术的"时空收敛"效应对南京市旅游客源市场结构产生明显作用,旅游现象及网络搜索行为下所反映的人们前往目的地旅游的可达距离与吸引距离均表现出明显的时空收敛。由于网络环境中的信息可获得性的趋同导致空间摩擦减弱,吸引距离收敛更为明显。时空收敛所带来的感知范围扩大,将使居民旅游和休闲出行大量增加。研究结果为旅游城市与客源城市的空间关系提供了新的研究视角,并为南京市旅游市场运营决策提供帮助。

According to the inverse derivation of the tourism gravitation model and the theory of metacartography,this paper,using Baidu Index and tourists of Nanjing,tries to calculate the reachable and attractive distance from 66 large and medium-sized cities to Nanjing.On this basis,this paper presents and analyzes the time-space convergence characteristics of tourist market using the map projection transformation method in ArcGIS.Result shows that: The "time-space convergence" of transportation and information technology has a significant effect on Nanjing tourist market space structure.Both the reachable distance and the attractive distance show obvious convergence.As the convergence of information availability in the network leads to the weakening of space friction,the convergence of the attractive distance is more obvious.The time-space convergence expands the scope of perception,therefore,residents leisure travel will increase significantly.The results provide a new research perspective for the spatial relationship between destination and tourist source cities,and provide assistance for the operation and decision of the Nanjing tourism market.