转移支付结构对基本公共服务均等化的影响——基于国家级贫困县划分的断点分析

The Impact of Transfer Payment Structure on Equalization of Basic Public Services——Fuzzy RD Analysis based on the Division of National Poverty Counties

本文首先从理论层面诠释转移支付结构对基本公共服务均等化的影响,然后基于2000-2007年县级面板数据,以1993年国家级贫困县划分的政策实验进行模糊断点回归(Fuzzy RD),研究发现:当带宽为80元时,增加1单位的一般性转移支付和专项转移支付能分别带动基本公共服务指数增长0.552单位和1.673单位,即一般性转移支付和专项转移支付都会提升基本公共服务均等化水平,但与专项转移支付相比,一般性转移支付的影响程度减弱。原因在于,尽管一般性转移支付可以直接增加地方财力,激励公共服务供给,但"支出偏好"和"经济发展逆向激励"会抑制民生性支出增长,弱化基本公共服务供给水平。因此,在调整转移支付结构时,应通过优化转移支付目标和资金分配方法来强化对地方政府的激励和约束,使得转移支付的支出激励效应能够有效转化为基本公共服务均等化水平的提高。

This paper firstly explains the impact of transfer payment structure on the equalization of basic public services from the theoretical level,and then based on the county-level panel data from 2000 to 2007,the fuzzy breakpoint regression(Fuzzy RD)is carried out in the policy experiment of the division of national poverty counties in 1993,the study finds that when the bandwidth is 80 yuan,the increase of 1 unit of general transfer payment and special transfer payment can drive the basic public service index to increase by 0.552 units and 1.673 units respectively,that is,general transfer payment and special transfer payment will both increase the equalization level of basic public service.However,the impact of general transfer payments is weaker compared with that of special transfer payments.The reason is that although general transfer payments can directly increase local financial resources and stimulate the supply of public services,"expenditure preference"and"reverse incentives for economic development"will inhibit the growth of people’s livelihood expenditures and weaken the supply level of basic public services.Therefore,when adjusting the transfer payment structure,the incentives and constraints to the local government should be strengthened by optimizing the transfer payment target and the fund allocation method,so that the expenditure incentive effect of the transfer payment can be effectively transformed into the improvement of the basic public service equalization level.