基于改进随机集贝叶斯网络的航班运行风险动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Flight Operation Risk Based on Improved Random Set Bayesian Network

针对航班运行风险动态分析,基于众多的航班运行风险的静态分析过程,结合贝叶斯网络和随机集理论,提出了改进的随机集贝叶斯网络的模型用以分析航班运行风险的变化.根据不安全事件的统计数据,精简部分影响因素组成贝叶斯网络,同时给出贝叶斯网络的算法.最后根据天气的实际变化进行运算,得出航班运行风险数据随着时间、天气等因素的动态变化,验证了改进随机集贝叶斯网络的可行性.

Aiming at the dynamic analysis of flight operation risks, based on the static analysis process of flight risk, combined with Bayesian network and random set theory, an improved random set Bayesian network model was proposed to analyze the changes of flight operation risks. According to the statistical data of unsafe events, some influencing factors were simplified to form Bayesian network, and the algorithm of Bias network was presented. Finally, according to the actual changes in the weather, the dynamic changes of flight operation risk data with time, weather and other factors were obtained, which verifies the feasibility of improving the random set Bayesian network.