对外开放与牺牲率：来自中国的经验分析

Openness and Sacrifice Rate: an Empirical Analysis from China

牺牲率的大小对宏观经济政策的效果具有重要的影响。本文在新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的框架下对中国贸易开放、金融开放对牺牲率的影响进行了实证检验。研究发现,贸易开放度与牺牲率之间显著正相关,贸易开放度越高,牺牲率越大;初始趋势通货膨胀率、金融开放度与牺牲率之间显著负相关,初始趋势通货膨胀率和金融开放度越高,牺牲率越小。在开放程度较高的背景下,政府在治理通货膨胀时,要配合实施稳出口、防止资本外逃等政策措施并增强政策的透明性和可信性,这样才能减小降低通货膨胀的产出损失。

The magnitude of the sacrifice rate has an important impact on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy. Based on the annual time series data from 1980 to 2016, this paper makes an empirical test on the impact of China’s trade opening and financial liberalization on the sacrifice rate under the framework of the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The results show that, there is a significant positive correlation between trade openness and sacrifice rate. The higher the trade openness is, the greater the sacrifice rate is. There is a significant negative correlation between initial trend inflation, financial openness and sacrifice rate. The higher the initial trend inflation rate and financial openness are, the smaller the sacrifice rate is. In the context of a high degree of openness, the government should cooperate with the implementation of policies and measures such as stabilizing exports and preventing capital flight, and enhance the transparency and credibility of policies in order to reduce the output loss that reduces inflation.