幸福的生育效应——基于CGSS2015调查数据的实证检验

The Fertility Effect of Happiness:A Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS2015 Data

当前中国社会面临的低生育率问题如果得不到妥善解决,就可能陷入“低生育率陷阱”而难以自拔。基于CGSS2015数据,使用二值选择模型和Poisson回归模型,探讨了幸福感和生育意愿之间的关系。研究结果表明,幸福感具有正向的生育效应,居民主观幸福感提升1个单位,生育意愿平均增加2.98%。年龄、健康和家庭成员数也会在一定程度上提升生育意愿。同时,随着幸福感的提升,人们受“重男轻女”观念的影响弱化,对子女性别的关注度降低。此外,收入和受教育水平对幸福的生育效应产生抑制作用。因此,研究认为政府现行的民生政策,不仅能提高居民的幸福感,还能通过幸福的生育效应提高社会生育率和缓解性别比例失衡。

Low fertility rate is becoming a serious problem in China,if it can’t be solved properly,the society may fall into the low fertility trap. Based on CGSS2015 data,this paper use binary choices model and poisson regression model to analyse the fertility effect of happiness. The results reveal that happiness has a positive fertility effect. Age, health and family members will also increase fertility will to some extent. with the improvement of happiness,people become less affected by the concept of patriarchal and pay a little attention to the gender of their child. In addition,income and education have an inhibitory effect on the happiness fertility effects. So,this paper believes that the current livelihood policies of government can not only improve the happiness of residents,but also improve the social fertility rate and alleviate the gender imbalance through the happiness fertility effect.