不完备信息条件下基于置信规则库的能力满足度评估方法

Belief rule base approach for capability satisfactory evaluation with incomplete information

信息不完备条件下,已有的置信规则库(belief rule base,BRB)建模方法较难构建完整结构的BRB,为武器装备体系能力需求满足度评估带来较大挑战。为此,本文提出了基于有限交集规则和自组织映射方法建立并集规则库的体系能力需求满足度评估方法。首先,分别对交集假设下和并集假设下的BRB进行描述,并分析了两者的关联性;其次,引入了自组织映射方法,定量计算每条并集规则同与其相关的交集规则之间的关联程度,进而计算并集规则所关联的交集规则的权重;在此基础上,给出了基于不完备交集BRB生成完整结构并集BRB的步骤;最后,以某区域防空武器装备体系能力满足度评估为例验证所提出方法的可行性和有效性。

When the information is incomplete,the existing modeling method of belief rule base (BRB) is difficult to construct a complete belief rule base,resulting in great challenges of weapon system of systems capability requirement satisfactory.Therefore,an analysis method based on finite conjunctive rules and self-organizing map is proposed to establish a disjunctive BRB.First,the belief rule bases under conjunctive assumption and disjunctive assumption are described respectively,and the correlation between them is defined.Secondly,the self-organizing mapping method is applied to quantitatively calculate the association degree between conjunctive rules and disjunctive rules,and to calculate the weight of the associated conjunctive rules.On this basis,the concrete steps of the generation of the complete disjunctive belief rule base are explained in detail.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the case of area air- defense weapon system of systems capability requirement satisfactory degree evaluation as an example.