泉州市关键点FZMOS预报检验与误差分析

Forecast Assessment and Error Analysis of FZMOS Forecast in Key Stations of Quanzhou

从降水和气温要素入手,对FZMOS客观订正预报产品性能进行初步评估,总结其误差发生特点并分析误差来源,供预报员参考,提高市级关键点预报订正业务质量。研究表明:预报员在FZEC-MOS雨量及高温预报上仍有提高订正质量的空间;高温预报在冬春季普遍偏低而夏秋季普遍偏高,夏季的低温普遍预报偏高,雨量预报普遍偏大,在夏季尤为明显;泉州地区某些关键点(如德化葛坑、大坠岛等)预报性能较差;初冬冷空气可能预报偏强,春末初夏的冷空气有可能预报偏弱;3-6月地面温度回暖不均,易产生暖区辐合辐散,触发对流,雨量往往预报偏小,需调大;春季低层变性冷空气之上的西南风推进较快,雨量需要往大调;夏季台风影响下的雨量预报偏大,需要适当调小。

Starting from precipitation and temperature,the performance of FZMOS objective revised forecast products is preliminarily evaluated,the occurrence regularity and the sources of error are summarized to provide a reference for forecasters and help to improve the forecast quality.The results show that there is still much room for forecasters to revise FZEC-MOS rainfall and high temperature forecast.High temperature forecast is generally low in winter and spring,but high in summer and autumn,and precipitation forecast is generally on the high side,especially in summer.Some key stations in Quanzhou are poorly predicted(e.g.Dehua Gekeng,Dazhui Island).The cold air in early winter may be strong,and the cold air in late spring and early summer may be weak.The surface temperature warms unevenly from March to June,which is prone to convergence and divergence in the warm zone,triggering convection,which makes the precipitation forecast small and needs to be adjusted.In the spring,the southwesterly wind above the low-denatured cold air advances faster,and the rainfall needs to be increased;the rainfall forecast under the influence of the summer typhoon is large and needs to be appropriately decreased.