高新区集群内财务风险传染效应研究

Research on Financial Risk Contagion Effect in the High-tech Zone Clusters

本文选取了我国北京中关村、上海高新区、武汉东湖高新区挂牌于新三板的科技中小企业,引入Z分数模型和F分数模型衡量财务风险。实证研究表明,财务风险效应存在于集群内,高新区企业集群的财务风险主要是通过集群融资和协同创新等途径进行传播,财务风险传染期为2-3年,且财务风险传染效应第2年最显著。此外企业自身的负债水平、经营能力以及管理层的过度自信也是影响财务风险传染的重要因素。本文的研究为集群企业间财务风险传染提供了重要的参考经验。

This paper selects the small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises listed in New OTC (Over the Counter) Market in Zhongguancun, Shanghai High-tech Zone and Wuhan Donghu New Technology Development Zone, and introduces z-score model and F-score model to measure financial risks. Empirical research shows that the financial risk effect exists in the cluster. The financial risk of high-tech zone enterprise clusters is mainly spread through cluster financing and collaborative innovation. The financial risk contagion period is 2-3 years, and the financial risk contagion effect is most significant in the second year. In addition, the enterprise's own debt level, operating ability and the management's overconfidence are also important factors that affect financial risk contagion. The research in this paper provides important reference experience for financial risk contagion among cluster enterprises.