基于灰色预测模型的上海市海洋经济发展预测

The Development Forecast of Shanghai Marine Economy Based on Grey Prediction Model

为科学预测上海市海洋经济发展趋势,文章基于灰色预测模型,对上海市海洋生产总值进行预测。研究结果表明:通过对2010-2017年原始数据序列的级比检验和一次累加,建立灰色预测模型,预测2018-2022年上海市海洋生产总值,经小误差概率、后验差和相对误差检验,预测结果可靠;上海市海洋经济将继续保持增长态势,至2021年海洋生产总值将突破1万亿元。

In order to forecast the developing trend of Shanghai marine economy scientifically,this paper forecasted the gross ocean product of Shanghai based on the Grey prediction model.The Grey prediction model was established through the level ratio test and a sum of the original data series from 2010 to 2017 to predict the gross ocean product of Shanghai from 2018 to 2022.It showed that the prediction results were reliable by small error probability,posterior error and relative error test.Shanghai′s marine economy will continue to grow,and its gross ocean product will exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2021.