人口视域下中国经济增长路径选择

The Choice of China’s Economic Growth Path from the Perspective of the Population

鉴于传统的同质性生产函数无法完全准确描述中国省份间经济增长路径存在的显著差异,文章通过引入带有伴随变量的有限混合模型,利用30个省份2000~2017年面板数据,从人口视角对中国经济增长路径存在的异质性进行解析,并对全要素生产率和要素贡献度进行了核算。三类别有限混合模型显示,样本期内中国存在3种异质性增长路径,不同路径下,人口自然增长率的下降、城镇化率和劳动年龄人口比重的提高有助于激发劳动力对经济增长的促进作用;而老龄化水平的上升与人力资本水平的下降则会强化经济增长对资本的依赖。虽然3种增长路径下,资本的贡献度均最高,但人力资本水平的提升仍有助于提高全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献度。此外,与带有伴随变量的有限混合模型相比,传统增长模型高估了资本对经济增长的贡献度,低估了全要素生产率和劳动力对经济增长的贡献度。

Based on the fact that the traditional homogenous production function cannot fully and accurately describe the significant differences in the economic growth paths among the provinces in China, this paper applies the finite mixture model with concomitant variables to the balanced panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2017. From the perspective of demographic structure, the heterogeneity of China’s economic growth path is analyzed and the total factor productivity and factor contribution are accounted for. The three-category finite mixture model shows that there are three heterogeneous growth paths in China during the sample period. Under different paths, the decline of the natural population growth rate and the increase of urbanization rate and the labor ratio have helped to stimulate the effect of labor force on economic growth. And the increase in the level of aging and the dedine of human capital have enhanced the dependence of economic growth on capital. Meanwhile, under the three growth paths, although the contribution of capital is the highest, the improvement of human capital will be conductive to increase the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth. In addition, compared with the finite mixture model with concomitant variables, the traditional growth model underestimates the contribution of total factor productivity and labor, and overestimates the contribution of capital to economic growth.