工资上涨与增加值出口——基于新兴经济体的实证分析

Rising Wages and the Added Value Export——Empirical Research Based on Emerging Economies

近年来,低生育率和老龄化等人口问题导致劳动力资源紧缺,许多工业化国家的劳工成本不断上涨。新兴经济体大量出口劳动密集型产品,推动了经济快速增长,是否会面临同样的问题?本文借助引力模型,实证研究了工资上涨对新兴经济体增加值出口的影响。研究结果发现工资上涨并没有阻碍新兴经济体的增加值出口,反而促进了出口,这主要源于劳动生产率的提高;在工资和劳动生产率的共同作用下,新兴经济体仍能保持劳动力成本优势;分样本来看,各类型技术工人的工资上涨都会推动增加值出口,高级技术工人的工资上涨促进增加值出口增长幅度最大,低级技术工人的促进作用最小。最后,预测了新兴经济体增加值出口的贸易潜力,多为贸易潜力巨大型和潜力再造型,建议拓展与发达国家的贸易合作,从劳动力数量和质量角度保持劳动力成本优势。

In recent years,population problems such as low fertility and aging have led to a shortage of labor resources,and labor costs in many industrialized countries have continued to rise. Emerging economies export a large number of labor-intensive products,which promotes rapid economic growth. Will they face the same problem? Based on the gravity model,this paper empirically studied the impact of rising wages on the added value exports of emerging economies. The study shows that rising wages do not hinder the added value exports of emerging economies,but instead promote exports,mainly due to the increase in labor productivity;under the combined effect of wages and labor productivity,emerging economies can still maintain labor cost advantages;in view,the rising wages of all types of skilled workers will promote added value exports,the rising wages of senior skilled workers will promote the growth of added value exports,and the promotion of lowlevel skilled workers will be the least. Finally,it predicts the trade potential of added value exports in emerging economies,mostly for the huge trade potential and re-study potential. It is proposed to expand trade cooperation with developed countries and maintain labor cost advantages from the perspective of labor quantity and quality.