“一带一路”背景下中美两国进口贸易波动的外溢效应研究——基于网络模型

Research on the Spillover Effects of Import Trade Fluctuations from China and the United States Under the Belt and Road Initiative——Based on the Network Model

本文基于全球贸易网络模型,研究了中美两国进口贸易下降对全球主要经济体与“一带一路”沿线国家和地区进出口贸易的影响。研究发现:(1)中美两国进口下降冲击对世界主要经济体进出口贸易均产生了很大的影响,其中中国进口冲击对亚洲、非洲与大洋洲国家和地区的影响较大,而美国进口冲击对欧美国家和地区影响较大;中国冲击影响的放大能力强于美国。(2)美国进口下降对中国进出口贸易的影响大于中国进口下降对美国的影响。(3)“一带一路”沿线国家和地区受中美两国进口下降冲击的影响要大于非“一带一路”沿线国家和地区,其中东南亚地区当期受到的影响最大,随着冲击的传递,“一带一路”中东欧地区受到的影响也不断增加。本文的政策意义:一是中美两国要和平解决贸易摩擦,促进世界经济平稳发展;二是中国应加大与“一带一路”沿线沿线国家和地区,特别是东南亚与中东欧地区的贸易往来,减少对美国的贸易依赖,与“一带一路”沿线国家和地区实现合作共赢。

Based on the growing trade friction between China and the US,and the background of the Belt and Road Initiative,this paper built a global trade network model and examined the impact of the decline in imports from China and the US on major economies around the world and the Belt and Road region. The study finds that:(1) The decline in imports from China and the US has huge negative impacts on the import and export trade of countries around the world. The impacts of China' s import decline on Asia,Africa,and Oceania are great,while the impacts of the US import shocks on European and American countries are large.(2) As China' s largest export target country,the impacts of the US imports decline on China' s import and export are greater than that of the decline in China' s imports on the US.(3) The region along the Belt and Road Initiative is more affected by the decline in imports from China and the US than that of the Non-Belt and Road region,and Southeast Asia of the Belt and Road is hugely affected in the current period. With the trade shocks transmitting,the impacts on Central and Eastern Europe also keep growing. The policy recommendations of this paper are: First,China and the US should peacefully resolve trade frictions,and promote the steady development of the world economy. Second,China should actively implement the Belt and Road Initiative and increase international trade with the Belt and Road countries,especially with Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe,and reduce trade dependence on the US to achieve winwin cooperation with the Belt and Road regions.