东道国经济政策不确定性对中国企业跨国并购的影响——基于二元边际的视角

Does the Host Country’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Inhibit China’s Firms’ Cross-border M&A——Based on the Perspective of Binary Margins

本文首先分析了经济政策不确定性的含义、表现及测度,在此基础上对东道国经济政策不确定性对企业对外投资的影响建模分析,并采用2002-2016年中国企业的跨国并购数据进行了实证研究。结果表明:东道国经济政策不确定性对企业跨国并购的规模、多元化程度具有显著的抑制效用,这种抑制效用在金融危机发生之后得到进一步的增强;进一步分析发现,企业跨国投资的不可逆程度、投资机会以及股权性质均会对经济政策不确定性与并购规模和多元化程度之间的关系产生影响。

Does the high uncertainty of global economic policy after the financial crisis affect the cross-border MA of Chinese enterprises to some extent? In this paper,we conducted a research on it. Firstly,we analyzed the meaning,performance and measure of economic policy uncertainty. Then,we modeled and analyzed the impact of host country' s economic policy uncertainty on enterprises' outward investment,and conducted an empirical study at the firm level. The empirical result indicates that the uncertainty of host country' s economic policy has a significant inhibiting effect on the scale and diversification of cross-border MA,which is further enhanced after the financial crisis. Further evidence reflects that investment irreversibility,investment opportunities,and the ownership nature will influence the restraining effect of economic policy on corporate crossborder MA.