租购并举政策下住宅适应性预期价格演化及仿真——兼论项目建设开发速度与土地供给速度对住宅价格的影响

The Evolution and Simulation of the Residential Adaptive Expected Price under Rent-Purchase Policy——the Impact of the Pace of Project Construction and Development and that of Land Supply on Housing Price

针对我国住宅市场长期以来"重售轻租"、租购结构不合理、房价上涨过快等现象,政府提出建立租购并举长效机制以调节我国住宅市场结构并稳定房价.本文分析了租购并举政策对我国住宅价格影响的传导机制,基于适应性预期理论建立住宅的适应性预期价格模型,研究在租购并举政策下,项目建设开发速度与土地供给速度对住宅价格的影响,并运用MATLAB 2017a软件对不同等级城市住宅价格进行模型仿真,结果表明:①租购并举政策对我国城市住宅价格的作用效果存在一定的滞后性;②与二、三线城市相比,一线城市的政策效果更加明显;③项目建设开发速度与土地供给速度均对住宅价格有负向影响,住宅价格对土地供给速度的敏感度大于对项目建设开发速度的敏感度;最后,就租购并举政策今后的有效实施提出了相应建议.

The government has proposed to establish a long-term mechanism featuring the combination of rent and purchase so as to regulate the structure of China' s housing market and to stabilize house prices from the perspective of the long-standing phenomenon of M valuing selling while despising rentingn in China's housing market, unreasonable rent-purchase structures and excessive rise in house prices. This paper analyses the transmission mechanism of the impact exerted by the rent-purchase policy on the housing price in China. On the basis of the adaptive expectation theory, an adaptive expectation price model is established to study the influence of the development speed of project construction and the pace of land supply on the housing price against the backdrop of the said rent-purchase policy.Besides, the model simulation of urban housing price of different grade is carried out by adopting MATLAB 2017A software. The simulation results show that:① the effect of the rent-purchase policy on the urban housing price in China lags behind to a certain extent.;② compared with the second-tier and third-tier cities, the policy effect on the first-tier cities is much more obvious;Rboth the pace of project construction and development and that of land supply exert a negative impact on the housing price, and the sensitivity of housing price to the speed of land supply is greater than that to the speed of project construction and development. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for the effective implementation of the rent-purchase policy in the future.