高房价对企业创新的影响:是挤出还是挤入?——基于双边随机前沿模型的测算

High Housing Prices and Enterprise Innovation: Crowding in or Crowding out?——Measurement and Calculation Based on Bilateral Stochastic Frontier Model

本文以兼具消费品与投资品属性的住房双重属性为基础,从供求两方面详解高房价对企业创新的双边作用机制,基于省级面板数据,利用双边随机前沿模型测算了房价影响企业创新的挤出效应、挤入效应及其净效应。研究结果表明:①房价的挤出效应(27.46%)和挤入效应(18.21%)相互作用最终导致实际企业创新水平低于前沿企业创新水平9.25%;②房价对企业创新影响的净效应为负,房价的挤出效应仍然占主导地位;③基于政府行为角度,从土地供应和金融发展两个层面分析房价对企业创新的异质性影响。结果表明,土地供应量减少强化了房价对企业创新水平的抑制作用,而金融发展水平和金融发展效率提高弱化了房价对企业创新水平的抑制作用。本文的政策启示在于:①要着重从供给侧解决房价过快上涨问题,增加土地供应量,改善土地供应偏向性,释放住房需求,从而弱化房价过快上涨带来的负效应;②促进企业创新着力点在于缓解企业融资约束,要加快金融市场化进程,降低金融抑制和金融垄断,提高金融市场发展效率,通过缓解企业融资约束促进创新。

Based on the data of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises at provincial level, this paper calculates the crowding in effect and crowding out effect of house prices on enterprise innovation by using the bilateral stochastic frontier model. The results show that the crowding out effect (27. 46%) and the crowding in effect (18. 21%) interact with each other,which leads to the fact that the actual enterprise innovation level is lower than the frontier enterprise innovation level by 9. 25%. The net effect of housing prices on corporate innovation is negative, and has not been significantly improved in different years, regions and provinces. The crowding out effect of house prices still dominates. From the angle of government behavior,this paper analyzes the moderating effects of the two on land price impact from land supply and financial development. The results show that the decrease of land supply strengthens the restraining effect of house prices on the level of enterprise innovation, while the level of financial development and the efficiency of financial development weaken the inhibitory effect of housing prices on the level of enterprise innovation.