中央环保督察与空气污染治理——基于地级城市微观面板数据的实证分析

Central Environmental Protection Inspector and Air Pollution Governance——An Empirical Analysis Based on Micro-panel Data of Prefecture-level Cities

2015年中国建立了以“督政”为特征的中央环保督察制度,改变了2006年确定的以“督企”为特征的环保督查制度,创新了中国环境监管机制。那么,中央环保督察能否显著降低空气污染呢?针对这一问题,本文在数理模型构建的基础上提出研究假设,并利用中国288个地级城市2015年9月至2018年8月日度空气污染数据进行实证检验。结果表明:①首轮中央环保督察和“回头看”对AQI、PM2.5和PM10都具有显著的降低效应,稳健性检验也进一步证明了结论的可靠性。②与首轮中央环保督察相比,“回头看”对空气污染的降低效应依然显著但程度稍弱。③在中央环保督察结束后的短时间内,无论是首轮中央环保督察还是“回头看”,都对AQI、PM2.5和PM10具有显著的降低效应。④首轮中央环保督察和“回头看”对AQI、PM2.5和PM10的影响效应在城市空气质量、是否将PM2.5作为空气质量考核指标、“秦岭—淮河”一线南北两侧以及官员年龄等方面呈现出较强的异质性特征。本文研究结论为推进中央环保督察的常态化、确定中央环保督察的重点区域、建立中央环保督察的整体性评估框架,以及推广以“督政”为特征的督察机制提供了决策依据。

In 2015,China established a central environmental supervision system characterized by“supervising the government”,which has changed the supervision characterized by“supervising enterprises”established in 2006 and innovated China’s environmental regulation mechanism.Therefore,can the central environmental supervision system significantly reduce air pollution?In response to this problem,this paper proposes research hypotheses based on the mathematical models.By using the air pollution data from 288 cities in China from September of 2015 to August of 2018,an empirical study has been conducted.The results indicated that:①The first-time central supervision for environmental protections and the“looking back”review works have significant reduction effects on AQI,PM2.5 and PM10,and the robustness test further proves the reliability of the conclusions.②Compared with the first-time central supervision for environmental protections,the“looking back”review works have a significant but less severe effect on air pollution.③After the completion of the Central Environmental Protection Inspector,both the first-time central supervision for environmental protections and the“looking back”review works have significant reduction effects on AQI,PM2.5 and PM10 in the short-term.④The first-time central supervision for environmental protections and the“looking back”review works on the impact of AQI,PM2.5 and PM10 have shown strong heterogeneity on urban air quality,whether to take PM2.5 as an air quality assessment indicator,“Qinling-Huaihe”line on both sides of the north and south and the age of officials.As a conclusion,this paper provides a basis for decision-making in promoting the normalization of central environmental protection inspectors,determining the key areas of central environmental protection inspectors,establishing a holistic assessment framework for central environmental protection inspector,and promoting the supervision mechanism characterized by“supervising the government”.