基于可达性的铁路路网抗毁性研究

A Study on Survivability Analysis of Railway Network based on the Accessibility

为全面准确地对铁路路网在损毁事件后的应对能力进行科学评判,在阐述铁路路网抗毁过程的基础上,分析在损毁事件发生后场景的跃迁,从行程时间和换乘次数2个角度提出基于可达性的铁路路网抗毁性的特征值计算方法,以及损毁事件后的车流绕行模型,以2008年我国南方大部分地区遭受的雨雪冰冻灾害造成的铁路网损毁事件为例,选取整个事件过程中2个最具代表性的场景进行抗毁性分析。该研究可以应用于铁路路网的线路规划、损毁事件后的车流调整决策等多个方面,为我国铁路路网规划、设计及改造完善提供理论支持。

To comprehensively and accurately evaluate the coping capacity of railway network after damage events, based on decomposing the anti-damage process of railway network, this paper analyzes the transition of scene after damage events, and puts forward a method of calculating the characteristic value of railway network damage resistance based on accessibility from the perspective of travel time and transfer times and a traffic flow bypass model after damage events. Taking the railway network damage event caused by the rain and snow freezing disaster in most areas of southern China in 2008 as an example, this paper selects two most representative scenarios in the whole event process to carry out the anti-destruction analysis. This study can be applied to railway network planning, traffic flow adjustment decision-making after damage events and other aspects, providing theoretical support for the planning, design and improvement of railway network in China.