女性特异性卒中风险预测指标体系的构建

Development of A Women-specific Stroke Risk Prediction Indicator System

目的构建女性特异性卒中风险预测指标体系。方法2018年6-10月,采用滚雪球法选取22名来自高校及医疗机构的专家,采用德尔菲法对基于文献分析所形成的女性特异性卒中风险预测指标体系初稿进行2轮专家咨询,最终确立女性特异性卒中风险预测指标体系。结果2轮专家咨询中,专家积极程度分别为88.0%、95.5%;专家权威系数均为0.83;协调系数分别为0.461和0.476,均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。所构建指标体系包含24项指标,涵盖传统危险因素、妊娠相关危险因素、激素相关危险因素、女性更常见的危险因素以及行为相关危险因素等5个方面。结论初步构建了女性特异性卒中风险预测指标体系,可作为女性特异性卒中风险预测模型的结构框架。

Objective To develop a women-specific stroke risk prediction system.Methods From June to October 2018,22 experts from medical universities or institutions were selected by snowball method,and two rounds of consultation were conducted on the indicator system formed based on literature analysis by Delphi method,finally a predictive index system of female specific stroke risk was established.Results In two rounds of expert consultation,the experts positive coefficients were 88.0%and 95.5%.Both of the expert authority coefficient in two rounds were 0.83,the coordination coefficients were 0.461 and 0.476,the difference had statistical significance(P<0.05).The established indicator system contained 24 indicators,with 5 aspects that including conventional risk factors,pregnancy-related factors,hormone-related factors,women common factors,and lifestyle factors.Conclusions A female-specific stroke risk prediction system has been preliminarily constructed,which can be used as the structural framework of female-specific stroke risk prediction model.