上市公司收益结构特征与收益持续性研究——来自沪市A股的经验证据

Research on earning structure and earning sustainability of listed companies:evidence from the Shanghai A-share market

选取2009-2017年我国A股非金融业上市公司为研究样本,统计研究了上市公司收益结构特征,研究发现我国上市公司整体收益结构质量较好,核心利润占收益总额比重最高;在核心利润小于0时,上市公司主要通过投资收益和营业外收入弥补利润使净利润指标为正;上市公司净利润为负的主要因素在于核心盈利能力不足和资产减值情况严重。实证检验了各收益项目本身的持续性,以及各个收益项目对下期收益总额的预测作用,研究发现综合收益、净利润、核心利润、投资收益和所得税费用持续性较强,核心利润大于0且净利润大于0的上市公司各项收益持续性明显优于其他上市公司;核心利润对下期净利润和下期综合收益的预测作用最强,投资收益次之。

This paper selects China s A-share non-financial listed companies from 2009 to 2017 as research samples,and statistically surveys the income structure characteristics of listed companies. The research finds that: The overall earning structure of listed companies in China is of good quality,and the proportion of core profit in the total earning is the highest. When the core profit is less than 0,the listed company makes up the profit mainly through investment income and nonbusiness income to make the net profit index positive. The main factors of negative net profit of listed companies are lack of core profitability and serious asset impairment. This paper also empirically tests the sustainability of each earning item and the prediction effect of each earning item on the total earning of the next period. The research finds that comprehensive income,net profit,core profit,investment income and income tax expense have strong continuity. Listed companies with core profit greater than 0 and net profit greater than 0 have significantly better earnings continuity than other listed companies,the core profit plays the strongest role in predicting the net profit and comprehensive income of the next period,followed by investment income.