产业结构升级有利于能源效率的提升吗?——基于财政分权的门槛回归模型检验

Is Upgrading of Industrial Structure Conducive to Improving Energy Efficiency? Threshold Regression Model Test Based on Fiscal Decentralization

能源作为重要的生产要素,其投入使用会极大地提高生产效率,是我国经济社会可持续发展的物质基础。产业结构升级对能源效率提升发挥着重要作用,而财政分权是中国经济发展的重要制度背景,产业结构升级和能源效率提升的过程与其有着密切的关系。基于我国1997—2015年30个省份的面板数据,以财政分权为门槛变量,通过构建门槛回归模型发现,产业结构升级对能源效率的影响存在门槛效应:在财政分权程度较低时,产业结构升级对能源效率的提升产生显著的负向阻碍作用;随着财政分权程度进一步加深,产业结构升级对能源效率的影响由负向阻碍作用转为正向促进作用;当财政分权继续深化时,产业结构升级对能源效率的影响又变为显著的负向阻碍作用,这说明适度的财政分权有助于产业结构升级的能源效率提升效应。针对实证分析结果,可以考虑采用适度分权原则;改革政府激励和绩效考核制度,坚持绿色化为导向的产业结构转型升级;推进产业技术进步,加快能源结构调整。

As an important factor of production, energy greatly improves the efficiency of production and is the material basis for the sustainable development of China’s economy and society. The upgrading of industrial structure plays an important role in the improvement of energy efficiency. Fiscal decentralization is a significant institutional background of China’s economic development. The process of upgrading industrial structure and improving energy efficiency has a close relationship with it. Based on the panel data of China’s 30 provinces from 1997 to 2015, this paper used fiscal decentralization as a threshold variable through building a threshold regression model. It has found that there is a threshold effect on the impact of industrial structure upgrading on energy efficiency. When the degree of fiscal decentralization is low, the upgrading of industrial structure has a significant negative hindrance to the improvement of energy efficiency. As the degree of fiscal decentralization deepens, the impact of upgrading industrial structure on energy efficiency turns from a negative inhibitory role to a positive one. When fiscal decentralization continue deepening, the impact of upgrading industrial structure on energy efficiency has become a significant negative impediment. This shows that moderate fiscal decentralization can help improve the energy efficiency of upgrading industrial structure. According to the results of empirical analysis, the principle of moderate decentralization may be adopted, the government incentive and performance appraisal system be reformed, the green-oriented industrial restructuring and upgrading be adhered to, industrial technological progress be promoted, and the adjustment of energy structure be accelerated.