人口老龄化对中国居民收入分配的影响

Impact of Population Aging on Income Distribution in China

我国已迈入"老龄化社会"的行列,人口年龄结构的改变是否会影响收入分配成为当前研究的热点。利用"中国健康与营养调查"1989—2011年间的微观调查数据,构建基于组群分析法的收入及收入不平等的效应分解模型,将收入水平及收入不平等效应分解为年龄效应、代际效应和时期效应,研究人口老龄化对居民收入分配的影响。结果发现,人口老龄化加剧了农村地区的收入分配不平等,却对城镇地区收入分配不平等有一定程度的缓解作用;不同年龄群体内的收入不平等程度随着年龄增加而加大。为此政府应努力完善农村地区基本养老保险制度,并加强对农村地区的投资以实现教育、养老和就业的协调发展;通过社会保障和养老保险等再分配手段实现收入的代际转移,做好弱势老年群体的养老工作,真正实现"老有所养"。

With the coming of aging society, the impact of population structure on income distribution in China has been a research focus in recent years. By employing micro data of China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS) from 1989 to 2011, this paper uses cohort analysis to decompose the effect of income and income inequality into age effects, intergenerational effects and period effects to study the impact of population aging on income distribution in China. Results show that population aging aggravates the income inequality in rural areas while it decreases the income inequality in urban areas to some extent, and the income equality within each age cohort increases with age. Therefore, the government should improve the system of endowment insurance in rural areas and increase the investment in rural areas to realize coordinated development of education, employment and pension. To achieve intergeneration transmission of income through social insurance and endowment insurance and other redistribution means, and to provide good care for the vulnerable elderly, so as to achieve "the elderly will be looked after properly".