要素错配U型趋势的决定因素——来自中国省际面板数据的证据

Determinants of the U Trends of Factor Mismatch: Evidence from the Provincial Panel Data of China

本文构建要素错配测算模型发现1995-2014年中国劳动力、资本错配程度呈现以2006年为拐点先下降后上升的"U"型趋势,并从理论和实证两方面研究制度因素、经济结构、要素自身、技术进步和经济环境对要素错配的影响。研究发现:政府干预、户籍制度、二元经济结构等制度性因素显著提高了劳动力、资本错配程度;市场化水平、对外开放度和信息交流显著降低了劳动力、资本错配程度,但结构性因素的凸显,导致金融危机后产业结构、教育水平、技术进步的非均衡发展提高了劳动力、资本的错配程度。此外,外商直接投资和二产占比对劳动力、资本错配的作用有相互加强的作用,而外商直接投资和三产占比对劳动力、资本错配的作用存在相互削弱的关系。综合作用来看,外商直接投资不利于劳动力、资本的合理配置。

This paper constructs the calculation model of elements mismatch and estimates that the labor and capital mismatch degree have the tendency of "U" with a turning point in 2006, and researches the influence of institutional factors, economic structure, technological progress and economic environment on the factors mismatch from two aspects of theory and empirical. The study found that: Institutional factors such as government intervention, the household registration system, the dual economic structure significantly improves the degree of labor and capital mismatch, the marketization and the opening significantly reduce the degree of labor mismatch on both two stages, the marketization and the level of market information significantly reduce the degree of capital mismatch on both two stages. However, prominent structural factors lead to unbalanced development of industry structure, education level and technical progress, which improve the extent of labor and capital mismatch in the Second stage. The effect of the foreign direct investment and the proportion of second industry on labor mismatch reinforce each other, While the effect of the foreign direct investment and the proportion of third industry on labor mismatch weaken each other. On the whole, FDI is not conducive to the rational allocation of labor and capital.