经济不确定性是否会弱化中国货币政策有效性

Will Economic Uncertainty Weaken the Effectiveness of China’s Monetary Policy?

本文从理论上厘清了经济不确定性对货币政策有效性的具体影响机制,将中国股市波动率和经济政策不确定性指数(EPU)作为不确定性的度量,构造经济产出和价格水平因子作为货币政策调控效果的衡量指标,系统考察了高低两种经济不确定性情形下的货币政策有效性,并将金融危机前后的差异进行对比。结果显示,不确定性仅会在量上影响货币政策调控效果,并不会改变其作用方向,不确定性会削弱货币政策有效性,这种弱化程度在金融危机后表现得更加明显。本研究对于央行准确把握货币政策调控的方向与力度,避免经济大起大落有重要意义。

This paper theoretically clarifies the specific influential path between economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy, regards China's stock market volatility and the EPU index as measures of economic uncertainty, constructs the two factors of economic output and price level to measure the policy's effects, inspects the effectiveness of monetary policy under two cases of high and low degree of uncertainty, and compares the differences before and after the financial crisis. The results show: economic uncertainty will only affect the monetary policy tools' effect quantitatively, and will not change their roles in the direction;economic uncertainty will weaken the policy's effectiveness;the weakening degree mentioned above has become more evident after the financial crisis. This study is of great value for the central bank to avoid the policy passivity under serious economic fluctuations and enhance the accuracy as well as the efifec-tiveness of decision making.