中美贸易摩擦对中国国际贸易的影响及对策研究

Research on the Impact and Countermeasures of the Sino-US Trade Friction on China’s International Trade

随着中美两国贸易由互补性向竞争性的转变,中美贸易摩擦正在呈现出愈演愈烈之势。文章采用GTAP-Dyn模型,结合当前实际,根据中美贸易摩擦未来可能的走向,设置了五种情景,动态模拟分析中美贸易摩擦对中国国际贸易的影响。研究结果表明:(1)中美贸易摩擦将会单方面减少中国的净出口和恶化中美双方的贸易条件;(2)中美贸易摩擦将会引起中国的出口和进口及产量发生显著变化;(3)中美贸易摩擦将会深刻改变中国各部门产品出口的市场结构。基于以上研究结论,文章提出了相应的对策建议。

As the trade between China and the United States changes from complementarity to competition, the Sino-US trade friction is intensifying. In this paper, the GTAP-Dyn model is used to set up five scenarios according to the severity of trade friction. The simulation analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade friction on China's international trade. The results show that:(1) the Sino-US trade friction will reduce China's net exports and worsen the terms of trade between China and the United States;(2) the Sino-US trade friction will cause China's imports, exports and production to decline to varying degrees;(3) the Sino-US trade friction will profoundly change the market structure of China's various sectors of product exports. Based on the above research conclusions, this paper proposes corresponding recommendations.