基于ARIMA模型烧结脱硫烟气指标的统计过程控制

Statistical process control of flue gas index of sintering desulfurization based on ARIMA model

应用统计过程控制工具对烧结烟气日常生产数据进行分析评价,根据反馈信息及时发现系统性因素出现的征兆,并采取措施消除其影响,以保证各污染物实时达标排放。因烧结脱硫后外排烟气中SO_2质量浓度在线检测数据不独立、且存在自相关性,不能直接使用SPC控制图进行统计过程监控。采用ARIMA模型先对烧结脱硫烟气SO_2质量浓度检测数据拟合分析,然后通过统计过程图分析拟合后的残差值,可准确判定脱硫系统生产操作过程是否稳定、受控,以及时指导操作调整,确保烧结脱硫烟气SO_2质量浓度实时指标满足国家环保法规的要求。

The daily production data of sintering flue gas are analyzed and evaluated by statistical process control tools. According to the feedback information,the symptoms of systemic factors can be found in time,and measures should be taken to eliminate their effects in order to ensure the real-time standard discharge of pollutants. Because the on-line measurement data of SO_2 concentration of sintering flue gas after desulfurization are auto-correlated and not independent,the SPC control chart can not be directly used for statistical process monitoring. ARIMA model is used to fit and analyze the SO_2 mass concentration measurement data of desulfurized sintering flue gas,then the residual value after fitting can be analyzed by statistical process diagram,which can accurately determine whether the production process of desulfurization system is stable and controlled,and can timely guide the operation adjustment,ensuring that the real-time SO_2 mass concentration index of sintering desulfurization flue gas meets the requirements of national environmental protection regulations.