摘要
利用GM(1,N)模型对高速公路沥青路面性能衰变、大中修后性能恢复、日常养护费用进行预测,得到路面养护周期及费用。在此基础上利用Matlab软件进行费用-时间二次优化,计算出经营期内路面养护总费用最小的养护周期序列,并通过7条高速公路对规划模型进行验证分析,分析结果表明:GM(1,N)模型c值均小于0.35,p值均大于0.95,模型预测精度良好,基于此预测模型的规划系统能有效解决高速公路沥青路面预防性养护规划问题。
The GM(1,N) model is used to predict the performance decay of asphalt pavement,performance recovery after major and medium repairs and daily maintenance cost of the expressway,and the pavement maintenance period and cost are obtained. Based on this,Matlab software is used to conduct the secondary optimization of cost-time and to calculate the minimum maintenance cyclic sequence for total pavement maintenance cost within the operation period. Finally,the planning model is analyzed and verified through seven expressways,and the result shows that,the c values of the GM(1,N) model are all less than 0.35,and the p values are all more than 0.95. The model prediction accuracy is good,and the planning system based on the prediction model can effectively solve the problem of preventive maintenance planning of expressway asphalt pavement.
作者
杨玉胜
华龙
Yang Yusheng;Hua Long(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science & Technology,Changsha 410004)
出处
《工程建设》
2019年第9期39-44,共6页
Engineering Construction
关键词
高速公路
沥青路面
路面性能预测
GM(1
N)模型
养护周期
预防性养护
expressway
asphalt pavement
pavement performance prediction
GM(1,N) model
maintenance period
preventive maintenance
