中美贸易战引致全球经贸不确定性预期下的人民币国际化——基于大宗商品推动路径的分析

RMB Internalization under the Expectation of Uncertainty Arising from Sino-US Trade War An Analysis Based on the Promotion Path of Staple Commodity

逆全球化思潮背景下,中美贸易摩擦不断向贸易战升级带来的外部不确定性冲击使得全球政治经济格局以及国际货币体系面临着新一轮的深刻重构。在“去美元化”趋势加强的历史阶段,人民币国际化开始真正进入角色状态;而在路径分析中,大宗商品定价权的缺失严重影响了人民币国际化的进一步扩展。基于此,在人民币的国际货币功能拓展(结算货币—计价货币—储备货币)路径上,应借鉴美元模式,掌握大宗商品定价权,从以人民币计价打开突破口;在人民币的空间范围拓展(周边化—区域化—国际化)路径上,可参考欧元模式,把握“一带一路”建设的机遇,通过大宗商品贸易实现区域化;同时,从汇率稳定上看,要避免贸易战压力下币值波动引致的人民币过度投机,可吸取日元教训,将大宗商品挂钩为人民币汇率的锚。因此,大宗商品成为人民币国际化新阶段布局的关键一环。

In the context of anti-globalization trend, the high uncertainty caused by the escalation of SinoUS trade frictions into a trade war has led to a new round of deep reconstruction on global political and economic landscape as well as the international monetary system. In the historical stage of increasing trend of "dedollarization", the internalization of RMB has really started exerting its role. However, in the analysis of the path, the loss of the pricing power of staple commodity has serious influence on the further development of RMB internalization. Therefore, with respect to the expansion path of functions of the international monetary of RMB(currency of settlement-currency of price-reserve currency), it is important to borrow insights from the mode of dollar, master the pricing power of staple commodity, and find a sally port on the pricing power of RMB.With regard to the expansion path of the space and scale of RMB(surrounding-regionalizing-internalization), it is feasible to refer to the mode of Euro, catch up with strategic opportunities of the Belt and Road construction,and realize regionalization by means of trade of staple commodity. In the meanwhile, viewed from the stability of exchange rate, it should avoid the excess speculation of RMB under the pressure of fluctuation of trade war,while it should learn a lesson from the yen, and confirm stable commodity as the anchor of the exchange rate of RMB. Thus, stable commodity has become a crucial point for the overall arrangement of RMB internalization in the new stage.