贸易竞争性、互补性及贸易潜力——基于“一带一路”沿线国家与美加墨统计数据的分析

Trade Competition, Complementarity and Potential Statistical Data of the United States, Canada and Mexico and the Countries along the “Belt and Road” Route

利用ESI和TCI指数对2003-2017年“一带一路”沿线56个国家和美加墨的统计数据进行贸易竞争性和互补性分析,构建贸易非效率随机前沿引力模型,从总体层面、行业层面和地区层面对“一带一路”沿线国家和美加墨的贸易潜力及其影响因素的考察表明:“一带一路”沿线国家与美加墨的贸易竞争性和贸易互补性较低、贸易潜力较高,贸易潜力与“一带一路”沿线国家收入水平整体呈现负相关关系,且不同类别的出口产品之间贸易潜力存在较大差异;“一带一路”沿线国家的人均GDP和人口规模、存在共同语言、“一带一路”倡议的交互项均能显著促进贸易潜力的提升,而美加墨人口规模、两地地理距离、“一带一路”沿线国家为内陆国则会抑制贸易潜力的提升;存在贸易非效率因素阻碍贸易潜力的实现,生效的区域贸易协定、较高的经济自由度、较高的政府效率和完善的基础设施能显著降低贸易非效率,促进贸易潜力的提升。

Based on the statistical data of the United States, Canada and Mexico and 56 countries along the "Belt and Road" route from 2003 to 2017, this paper first analyzes trade competition and complementarity by using ESI and TCI index, and then constructs a stochastic frontier gravity model of trade inefficiency. Trade potential and its influencing factors between the countries along the "Belt and Road" route and the United States,Canada and Mexico are also studied from the overall level, the industry level and the regional level, respectively.The results show that:(1) trade competition and trade complementarity between the countries along the "Belt and Road" route and the United States, Canada and Mexico are low, trade potential is high and is negatively correlated with the income level of the countries along the "Belt and Road" route, and there are great differences in trade potential between different categories of export products;(2) the per capita GDP and population size of the countries along the"Belt and Road"route, the existence of a common language and the interaction of the"Belt and Road" initiative can all significantly promote trade potential. While the population size of the United States, Canada, Mexico, geographical distance between the two regions and the countries along the "Belt and Road" route are inland countries will curb the promotion of trade potential;(3) the existence of trade inefficiency hinders the realization of trade potential. Effective regional trade agreements, higher economic freedom, higher government efficiency and perfect infrastructure can significantly reduce trade inefficiency and promote trade potential.