贸易政策不确定性对中国外贸产业升级影响作用机制分析——基于中美贸易政策博弈的检验

An Analysis of the Mechanism of the Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Upgrading of China′s Foreign Trade Industry:A Test based on the Game of Sino-U.S. Trade Policy

逻辑分析表明,中美在贸易、金融、投资、科技等领域的摩擦势必造成中国"被动式跟进型"贸易等政策的不确定性,且摩擦的周期性反复将常态化、长期化,对我国正式实施的外贸产业转型升级将产生重大影响。对此,本文通过测度2007-2017年中美贸易政策不确定性指数及对外贸易转型升级指数,构建省际面板数据模型检验贸易政策不确定性对我国对外贸易转型升级的作用机制。全样本回归结果表明贸易政策不确定性的提高会抑制我国对外贸易转型升级进程,分地区样本回归结果表明贸易政策不确定性对我国各个地区对外贸易转型升级的影响程度、影响时间都呈现出差异性。根据上述结论,政府和企业要动态处理贸易政策不确定性与外贸产业转型升级的关系,实行差异化的区域政策制度,要充分考虑贸易伙伴国的政治和经济因素,以规避贸易国贸易政策不确定性对外贸产业升级带来的抑制作用。

Logical analysis shows that the friction between China and the United States in the fields of trade, finance, investment, science and technology is bound to cause the uncertainty of China′s "passive follow-up" trade and other policies, and the cyclical nature of the friction will be normalized and long-term,which will have a significant impact on the transformation and upgrading of China′s foreign trade industry.In this regard, by measuring the trade policy uncertainty index and the foreign trade transformation and upgrading index in 2007-2017 of China and the United States, this paper constructs an inter provincial panel data model to test the mechanism of trade policy uncertainty on China′s foreign trade transformation and upgrading.The results of full sample regression show that the improvement of trade policy uncertainty will inhibit the process of China′s foreign trade transformation and upgrading. The results of regional sample regression show that the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China′s foreign trade transformation and upgrading in different regions is different in degree and time.According to the above conclusions, the government and enterprises should dynamically deal with the relationship between the uncertainty of trade policy and the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade industry, implement the differentiated regional policy system, and fully consider the political and economic factors of trade partner countries, so as to avoid the inhibition of trade policy uncertainty on the upgrading of foreign trade industry.