三峡水库入库流量中期预报水文模型研究与应用

Study and application of medium-term hydrological forecast model for flow entering Three Gorges Reservoir

准确、及时的水文气象预报是水库优化调度的基础。三峡水库建成后,库区水文水力学特性发生了明显变化。长江委水文局预报中心在原来长江上游中期预报基础上不断改进与创新,设计了基于多种模式数值预报的长江上游分区中期面雨量预报模型,在三峡水库入库流量预报方案中引进了MIKE11水力学预报模型。基于长江委水文局2010~2017年发布的分区面雨量预报和三峡水库中期入库流量预报成果,分析了面雨量和三峡入库流量预报精度以及预报误差出现的可能原因,并对未来中期水文气象预报发展趋势进行了展望。

Accurate and timely hydrometeorological forecast is the basis of reservoir optimal operation. After the completion of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the reservoir have changed greatly. On the basis of the original forecasting method, through continuous improvement and innovation, the Forecast Center of Hydrology Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission developed a zoned medium-term areal rainfall forecast model based on a battery of numerical forecast models for the upstream Yangtze River and employed MIKE 11 hydraulics forecast model to forecast inflow entering the Three Gorges Reservoir.Based on the zoned area rainfall forecast and the medium-term inflow forecast entering the Three Gorges Reservoir issued by Hydrology Bureau during 2010 to 2017, this paper analyzes the forecast accuracy of the areal rainfall and the inflow entering the Three Gorges Reservoir and the possible causes of the forecast error, and prospects the development trend of the medium term hydrological and meteorological forecast in the future.