基于组合赋权-TOPSIS装配式建筑施工阶段进度风险评价

Risk Assessment of Prefabricated Building Construction Stage Based on Combination Weighting-TOPSIS

目前,我国装配式建筑发展水平相对较低,在施工阶段受到外界影响因素多,导致进度延误现象严重。现采用实地调研和文献分析筛选出25项装配式建筑施工阶段风险评价指标,构建其风险评价指标体系。用AHP-CRITIC法组合确定权重,既考虑到主观权重人为因素太强,又考虑到客观权重过于依赖样本,最大限度的减少信息的损失,使赋权的结果尽可能的与实际结果接近,再结合TOPSIS评价模型对数据进行处理,计算出各待评价装配式建筑与理想解的相对贴进度。据此对待评价的装配式建筑施工阶段风险进行排序,并对评价结果进行讨论分析。最后,以10个装配式建筑项目为研究对象进行实证分析,验证了所构建的评价指标体系以及评价方法科学合理、评价结果客观准确,对今后的新建装配式建筑进度风险控制具有较好的参考价值。

At present, the level of development of fabricated buildings in China is relatively low, and there are many external factors in the construction phase, resulting in serious delays in progress. The field research and literature analysis are used to screen out the risk assessment indicators of 25 prefabricated building construction stages and construct their risk evaluation index system. Using the AHP-CRITIC method to determine the weight, considering that the subjective weight is too strong, and considering that the objective weight is too dependent on the sample, the information loss is minimized, and the result of the empowerment is as close as possible to the actual result.The data is processed in combination with the TOPSIS evaluation model, and the relative progress of each assembled building and the ideal solution to be evaluated is calculated. According to this, the risk of the prefabricated construction stage of the evaluation is sorted, and the evaluation results are discussed and analyzed. Finally, the empirical analysis of 10 prefabricated construction projects is carried out, which verifies that the evaluation index system and evaluation method are scientific and reasonable, and the evaluation results are objective and accurate. It has a good reference value for the future risk control of new assembly buildings.