安徽省粮食生产的格局演变及影响因素分析

The Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Anhui Province

粮食生产格局的时空变迁对粮食安全有重要影响。基于2007-2017年安徽省粮食生产相关数据,运用探索性空间数据分析法从县域视角分析安徽省粮食生产的格局演变及形成动因,运用灰色关联法分析其影响因素。结果表明:全省粮食生产具有逐步增强的空间正相关性,形成了皖西北淮北平原的高值集聚区域与皖南山区的低值集聚区域,生产重心逐渐向西北转移;各县的耕地面积及机械、水利、劳动力、化肥等要素在县域粮食生产格局演变中发挥了重要作用。分析表明:土地投入、农业技术对粮食生产具有关键影响,自然灾害与劳动力投入影响次之,财政支农增产效果有待提升。应通过稳定耕地面积、提高农业生产技术水平、改善农业生产条件、提升粮食生产者素质、改革财政支农资金的使用方式及结构的措施持续提升安徽省粮食产能。

The spatial and temporal pattern evolution of grain production have an important impact on food security.Based on the data of grain production from 2007 to 2017 in Anhui province,this paper uses the exploratory spatial data analysis method to analyze the pattern evolution and formation of grain production from the county perspective,and uses the gray correlation method to analyze its influencing factors.The results show that the grain production has progressively enhanced spatial positive correlation in Anhui province,formed a high-value agglomeration area on the Huaibei plain in northwest Anhui and a low-value agglomeration area in the mountainous area of southern Anhui,and the grain production center has been shifting to the northwest gradually;The cultivated land area and agricultural machinery,water conservancy,labor,chemical fertilizer in each county played an important role in the pattern evolution of the county grain production in Anhui province.The analysis shows that land input and agricultural technology have a key impact on grain production,natural disasters and labor input have the second impact,and the effect of fiscal support for agriculture needs to be improved.The grain production capacity should be continuously improved by stabilizing cultivated land area,improving agricultural production technology,improving agricultural production conditions,improving the quality of grain producers,and reforming the use and structure of financial support for agriculture.