深水油气开采安全风险评估与管控研究进展

Advances in safety assessment and risk management for deepwater oil and gas exploitation

深水油气领域是未来中国能源发展的主战场,加大深水油气勘探开发力度是建设海洋强国和保障国家能源安全的有效途径,但严苛复杂的海洋环境和工艺条件是深水油气开发必须面对的现实挑战。为此针对深水油气开采的主要作业场景,系统开展钻井和生产过程中井喷、泄漏、燃爆等重大事故的风险评估、风险演化、后果评估及事故防控研究,定量评估深水钻井作业及井控工艺过程风险,提出钻井作业事故连锁风险演化方法,建立钻井及井控作业关键屏障可靠性评估模型,同时针对深水油气开采工艺事故风险,基于机器学习算法和数据驱动模型,形成考虑多场景、多参数的普适性事故风险评价方法和数字化防控体系。可为深水油气开采工程风险评估和防控提供良好的理论基础和技术支撑。

Deepwater oil and gas is becoming great concerns in terms of the energy development in China. The exploration and exploitation of the deepwater oil and gas has been recently promoted to the plan of building a powerful ocean country and energy safety. However, the harsh and complicated offshore environment as well as the technological conditions still exit during the exploitation process. In view of the main operation scene, the research on major accidents was systematically carried out including the risk assessment, risk evolution, consequence assessment, accident control and so on. Firstly, the risk evolution methodology during the drilling operation was proposed and the reliability assessment model for the critical barriers was constructed. In addition, with regard to the potential risk during the deepwater oil and gas exploitation process, the robust risk assessment approach and the digital control scheme were developed by integrating the machine learning algorithms and data-driven models with the consequence modeling considering multi-object-based parameters. Altogether, we review the above achievements and also give the future research directions in this area.