病原体毒性进化多样性的动力学模型

Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogen Virulence Diversity

传染病一直以来都是危害人类健康的最大劲敌,并且越来越多病原体的毒性表现出了多样性的特点;基于适应动力学等方法去研究病原体的毒性进化,可以为传染病治疗方法的设计和防控策略的制定提供一些定量参考和有效的建议。本文主要从典型的传播动力学模型出发,利用动力系统理论和进化动力学理论等方法主要研究一类自然死亡率不具有种群密度依赖的SI模型,讨论了自然死亡率和出生率对进化稳定策略的影响。研究发现,此模型下只要进化奇异策略是收敛稳定的,也必定是进化稳定的,不会出现病原体毒力进化分支的现象。

Infectious diseases have always been the biggest rivals that endanger human health. and the virulence of more and more pathogens has shown diversity characteristics, such as our well-known hepatitis virus and avian influenza virus contains a number of subtypes, based on adaptive kinetics to study the interaction between the host and pathogens lead to viral toxicity evolutionary, Which can provide some quantitative reference and effective suggestions for the design of disease treatment methods and the development of prevention and control strategies. Based on the typical propagation dynamics model, this paper studies the environmental factors and evolutionary dynamics of evolutionary diversity of pathogen virulence by means of dynamical system theory and evolutionary dynamics theory. we mainly study a SI model with no density dependence on natural mortality, we discussed the impact of mortality on evolutionary singular strategies. We found that this model as long as the singular strategy is stable convergence, it must be evolutionary stability. So Evolutionary branch can not appear.