基于灰色模型的美国煤炭生产与消费预测

Prediction of American coal production and consumption based on grey model

通过对美国煤炭生产和消费发展和现状的分析,发现自2001年以来美国煤炭生产、进口和消费量整体呈逐年下降趋势,煤炭出口量呈整体逐年上升趋势。应用灰色模型,对美国煤炭生产、进口、出口、商业消费、工业消费和电力消费量进行预测,结果显示,到2025年,预计美国煤炭产量为67642万t、进口量为705万t、出口量为14171万t、商业消费量为85万t、工业消费量为3722万t、电力消费量为56389万t。

Based on the analysis of the development and current situation of coal production and consumption in the United States, it was found that the overall production, import and consumption of coal in the United States had been declining year by year since 2000, while the overall export of coal had been increasing year by year. The grey model was applied to forecast the coal production, import, export, commercial consumption, industrial consumption and power consumption in the United States. The results showed that by 2025, the coal production, import, export, commercial consumption, industrial consumption and electricity consumption of the United States would respectively be 676.42 million tons, 7.05 million tons, 141.71 million tons, 0.85 million tons, 37.22 million tons and 563.89 million tons.