中国“一带一路”沿线投资的影响因素研究——基于投资引力模型的实证检验

Research on the Influencing Factors of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment along “The Belt and Road”——Empirical Test based on the Investment Gravity Model

基于投资引力模型对中国“一带一路”沿线国家的投资影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现,东道国经济自由度和市场规模的提高能够显著促进中国投资,并且中国海外资本偏好流向政府治理质量较低的国家。进一步检验发现,中低收入国家的政府治理质量对于中国投资规模的影响最为显著,而中高收入国家的经济自由度对中国投资规模的影响最为明显。从分布区域来看,中国对“一带”沿线国家的投资主要为市场导向,对于“一路”沿线国家的投资主要是战略导向。最后提出合理建议,以期对中国企业在“一带一路”沿线规避投资风险有一定的启示。

Based on the investment gravity model , this paper makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of China's outward foreign direct investment towards countries along “the Belt and Road”. The study finds that the economic reedomand market size of the host country can significantly promote Chinese investment,and China's overseas capital preferrs flowing to countries with low governance quality. Further inspection found that governance quality of low and middle income countries have most significant influence on Chinese investment scale,yet in high-income countries, economic freedom is the most significant influencing factor on China's investment scale From the perspective of the distribution region,China's investment in countries along “the Belt” is mainly market-oriented and the investment towards countries along the “the Road” is mainly strategy-oriented. At the end of this paper,reasonable suggestions are put forward so as to help Chinese enterprises avoid investment risks along “the Belt and Road”.