东安江“2018.9.1”洪水预测预警分析

Forecast and warning of "2018.9.1" flood on Donganjiang River

以“2018.9.1”洪水为例,分别采用相关分析法和涨率分析法对东安江洪水进行综合研判,结果认为:沙头镇水文站将在9月1日5时出现超警戒水位(57.0m)洪水,木双水文站将在9月1日11时出现涨幅4m左右洪水。并及时发布了洪水预警,预测结果与实际洪峰水位、洪峰出现时间及涨幅基本吻合。

Comprehensive analysis of flood were conducted by correlation analysis method and rising rate analysis method respectively for Dongjiang River,based on which it was predicted that Shatouzhen Hydrological Station would see a flood above the alarm level 57.0m at 5:00am on September 1,2018,and a flood with a level rise of 4m would occur at Mushuang Hydrological Station at 11:00am of the same day.Flood warning was issued timely.The actual peak flood level,occurring time and rising range basically coincided with the forecast.