“一带一路”重点省份水资源-经济-生态环境耦合协调分析

Coupling and coordination analysis of water resources-economy-ecological environment in key provinces of “the Belt and Road”

依据耦合协调度模型,探究"一带一路"倡议下18个重点省(市、区)水资源、经济、生态环境3系统协调共生关系,构建适用于时空尺度下重点地区3系统的指标评价体系,利用主客观综合赋权计算各级指标权重,并计算耦合度(coupling degree)与耦合协调度(degree of coupling coordination).按其结果对2006-2015年各研究区的3系统协调发展程度进行定量分析与评价,对地区协调发展给予评级.结果反映出研究范围内全系统的整体协调发展态势,表现为耦合协调度波动上升、3系统共同向好发展以及时空上的差异性.并对2类协调问题,提出"一带一路"倡议下3系统协调发展对策,应在战略推进过程中强化水资源保护意识,提高用水效率,调整经济发展模式,强调生态资源优势,加大水利扶贫力度.

According to the coupling coordination degree model, the three-system coordinated symbiotic relationship of water resources, economy and ecological environment in 18 key provinces(cities, districts) under"the Belt and Road"initiative is explored. The index evaluation system for the three-system in key areas under the spatiotemporal scale is constructed,the weights of the indicators are calculated by subjective and objective comprehensive weighting, and the coupling degree and the degree of coupling coordination are calculated.According to the results, the quantitative analysis and evaluation of the coordinated development of the threesystem of water resources, economy and ecological environment in every study area from 2006 to 2015 are carried out;and the regional coordinated development is rated. The results reflect the overall coordinated development of the whole system within the study,which shows that the coupling coordination degree rises with fluctuations, the three system works together for a better development and the differences in time and space. And for the two types of coordination problems, this paper puts forward the three-system coordinated development strategy under"the Belt and Road"initiative, the awareness of water resources protection should be strengthed, water use efficiency should be improved, the economic development model should be adjusted,the advantages of ecological resources should be emphasized and water and poverty alleviation should be increased in the process of strategic advancement.