贸易抢跑效应对出口的影响

The Influence on Export due to the Trade Friction between China and the United States

2018年,受中美贸易摩擦影响,我国对美出口增长乏力。然而数据显示,在美国正式确认第一轮340亿美元加征关税商品清单之后,2018年7-9月,即将加征关税的160亿美元商品和2000亿美元商品出现了明显的出口提前现象,维持了三季度外贸基本平稳。中国主要价值链合作伙伴国家和地区的出口数据也在一定程度上侧面佐证了这一趋势。受到加征关税和第三季度提前出口的影响,2018年第四季度中国对美出口增速已显著下滑,2019年一季度继续走弱。

In 2018 , influenced by the trade friction between China and the United States, the growth of export from China to the United States was slow. However, export data has shown that after the first list of goods to be imposed more tariffs which worth $34 billion was officially confirmed, from July to September 2018 , the goods on the following lists to be imposed more tariffs which worth $ 16 billion and $ 200 billion are exported in advance obviously, which helped to maintain the stability of trade in the third quarter of 2018. The export data of China's major global value chain partners also support this trend to some extent. Affected by the increased tariffs and early exports in the third quarter, the export growth of China to the United States has declined significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018 and continued to weaken in the first quarter of 2019.